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The Illusion of the Energy Transition

Published: 13 November 2024
Last updated: 10 February 2025

The public is led to believe that serious efforts are underway to achieve the energy transition, but this is an illusion. Under current policies, it will amount to nothing. Despite all the promises, global CO₂ emissions keep rising every year, and that trend will continue. Why is the energy transition failing? One reason is the sole focus on phasing out fossil fuels in electricity production, which accounts for just 20% of total energy consumption. To fully replace fossil fuels, the other 80% must also be supplied by green energy, which is impossible to achieve in Europe. This article examines these issues and offers a realistic perspective on the energy transition.

  • The figures are expressed in trillion USD (American English), where 1 trillion equals 1000 billion (1012).
  • We assume a global energy consumption of 170000 TWh per year, this corresponds to an average power demand of 20 TW; including future growth, 30 TW of sustainable energy is required. 

The map of the Netherlands in 2300

The Netherlands is one of the countries that will be hit hard by sea level rise.

The Netherlands flooded in 2300The Netherlands will be flooded in 2300

Sea level rise 10 meter in 2030The sea level rise will be at least 4 meter in 2300

Sea level rise in the NetherlandsThe consequences of climate change for the Netherlands

Efforts will undoubtedly be made to continue protecting the Netherlands against rising sea levels. Until around 2200, with an expected rise of three meters, this will still be just about feasible. However, beyond that point, it will become impossible. In the 23rd century, a large part of the Netherlands will inevitably flood. The majority of the population will need to migrate to higher areas, such as Limburg and the Veluwe. Beautiful cities like Amsterdam are lost forever.

Why individuals can do little about climate change

It is often claimed that buying electric cars, installing solar panels, and limiting air travel are meaningful actions. However, this is a misconception: even if no one flew anymore and all cars were electric, the overall impact would still be minimal.

  • Only governments can make the large-scale transition to clean energy sources a reality. This is not a task that can be achieved at the individual level.
  • While personal actions are unfortunately not very effective, there is one choice that has an exceptionally large impact: having fewer children. Having one fewer child reduces CO₂ emissions by a factor hundreds of times greater than any other individual action.
  • This brings us to the heart of the climate problem: overpopulation. The growth of the global population is one of the biggest causes of climate change. However, addressing population growth remains a societal taboo, even though it would be the most effective solution.

Why is the global CO₂ emission rising each year?

Instead of decreasing, global CO₂ emissions continue to rise every year. What is the reason for this failure? A key factor is that people continue to think on too small a scale and fail to realize how large energy parks need to be to completely replace fossil fuels. This requires investments and international cooperation on a scale that has never been achieved before.

Politicians believe that signing an energy agreement is enough to achieve results. So far, nothing has come of it due to a lack of realistic understanding of technical feasibility, costs, and financing.

CO₂ emissions 1900 2024  

Misconceptions about green energy

  • Many well-intended solutions, such as electric cars, contribute only to a limited extent to the overall solution and divert attention from what is truly necessary.
  • Focusing solely on sustainable electricity: The focus is often limited to decarbonizing the electricity supply. However, electricity accounts for only 20% of total energy consumption.
  • Local energy generation: Many countries aim to produce renewable energy locally, but this is totally unrealistic. The Northern Hemisphere simply does not have enough natural resources.
  • The geopolitical problems of building solar power plants in the Sahara are seen as insurmountable, which led to the end of Desertec. However, these problems are small compared to the geopolitical problems we will face if sea levels rise by several meters and oil runs out.
  • Traditional solar panels with solar cells are unsuitable for large-scale solar parks in deserts due to their high cost, low efficiency, and limited lifespan.

Solar Energy

Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)

The capacity factor of CSP is just 30%, which requires a massive energy storage capacity. The major advantage of CSP is that the energy storage can effectively be integrated directly into the power plant itself in the form of molten salt.

With a capacity factor of 30%, the required CSP capacity is:

30 TW / 0.3 = 100 TW.
CSP systems achieve an efficiency of 35%, which translates to approximately 400 W/m² at peak solar radiation of 1200 W/m².
The total area required is:
100 TW / (400 × 106) = 250,000 km². This is equivalent to a square of 500 km × 500 km.

If we can get the cost of CSP down to $3 per Watt, the cost will be about 300 trillion USD.
For optimal results, CSP systems should be distributed globally to minimize climate disruptions. This approach also increases the capacity factor and reduces the required energy storage capacity.

Wind Energy

Windfarm with 12MW Haliade X 12MW turbinesWindfarm with 12MW Haliade X 12MW turbines

With a global distribution of wind turbines, we assume a capacity factor of approximately 60%. Using 12 MW wind turbines, the required number of turbines is:

30 TW / (12 MW × 0.6) ≈ 4 million turbines.
At a cost of 10 million USD per turbine, the total cost amounts to 40 trillion USD.

Because of the capacity factor, the amount of energy storage required is considerably greater than is practically feasible. Wind energy is therefore not suitable for fully meeting primary energy needs.

Nuclear Energy

Nuclear power requires significantly higher investments compared to renewables. For instance, with the largest reactors, such as the European Pressurized Reactor of 1600 MW, achieving 30 TW would require 20,000 reactors. At a construction cost of 10 billion USD per reactor, the total cost amounts to 200 trillion USD. Additionally, there are astronomical costs associated with nuclear disasters and waste storage. Nuclear Energy is anyway not a long-term solution, as uranium reserves are insufficient. 

A far better alternative to traditional uranium nuclear power plants are thorium reactors. Unfortunately, in the past, investments were almost exclusively directed toward uranium reactors, as they also provided materials for nuclear weapons production.

Clean energy for tomorrow: promising sources in development

  • Thorium Reactors: Much safer than conventional nuclear reactors, but still in development.
  • Nuclear Fusion: A promising energy source, but still far from being fully developed.
  • Geothermal Energy: At a depth of just 20km, geothermal heat reaches 1000 °C, offering a potentially inexhaustible energy source.

Energy storage in iron powder

Iron powder is a promising solution for large-scale energy storage. Renewable energy sources such as wind and solar do not provide a constant supply, making storage essential. However, with a full transition to green energy, the required storage capacity becomes immense, reaching multiple terawatts. Batteries are entirely unsuitable for this purpose, they are too expensive, and there are simply not enough raw materials available to produce them.

An alternative is iron powder, which releases heat when burned and can later be recharged using renewable energy. This makes it a circular and potentially sustainable system. Unfortunately, research on this technology is still in its infancy, even an official name has yet to be established!

Other Small-Scale Energy Sources

The following energy sources are too small to have a meaningful impact:

  • Tidal energy
  • Wave energy
  • Hydroelectric energy

World total primary energy consumption by type

World Total Primary Energy Consumption by TypeWorld Total Primary Energy Consumption by Type

Understanding the affordability of 300 trillion USD

The costs amount to 30 trillion USD per year if spread over 10 years. This amount is in the same order of magnitude as the largest annual expenditures worldwide:

Healthcare Spending 10
Cybercrime Costs 10
IT Spending 30

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