The Reality of the Green Transition: Facts, Challenges, and Misconceptions
To limit global warming, the use of fossil fuels must be phased out as quickly as possible. This article briefly explains the possibilities, challenges, and costs involved. Most articles on the internet about the green transition show a lack of knowledge and insight. In this article, we aim to present a clear and realistic view.
To keep the article brief, the calculations have been simplified but they provide a quick insight into the scale of the required investments.
- The figures are expressed in trillion USD (American English), where 1 trillion equals 1000 billion (1012).
- We assume a current global primary energy consumption of 170,000 TWh per year, which corresponds to an average power demand of 20 TW. The required power to be generated with green energy must also be increased with future growth and transport losses. We estimate this at 30TW.
Why is the global CO₂ emission rising each year?
Instead of decreasing, global CO₂ emissions continue to rise every year. What is the reason for this failure? A key factor is that people continue to think on too small a scale and fail to realize how large energy parks need to be to completely replace fossil fuels. This requires investments and international cooperation on a scale that has never been achieved before.
Misconceptions about green energy
- Every little bit helps: Many well-meaning efforts, such as promoting electric vehicles and rooftop solar panels, are a waste of money and distract from what truly needs to be done. The idea that "every little bit helps" is WRONG.
- Focusing solely on sustainable electricity: The focus is often limited to decarbonizing the electricity supply. However, electricity accounts for only 20% of total energy consumption.
- Local energy generation: Many countries aim to produce renewable energy locally, but this is totally unrealistic. The Northern Hemisphere simply does not have enough natural resources.
- The geopolitical problems of building solar power plants in the Sahara are seen as insurmountable, which led to the end of Desertec. However, these problems are small compared to the geopolitical problems we will face if sea levels rise by several meters and oil runs out.
- Unknown fact: Energy can be stored in iron oxide (rust) and easily transported by ship, similar to oil. The stored energy is released during combustion. This method is more practical than using hydrogen or high-voltage power lines.
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Traditional solar panels with solar cells are unsuitable for large-scale solar parks in deserts due to their high cost, low efficiency, and limited lifespan.
Future Energy Sources
- Thorium Reactors: Much safer than conventional nuclear reactors, but still in development.
- Nuclear Fusion: A promising energy source, but still far from being fully developed.
- Geothermal Energy: At a depth of just 20km, geothermal heat reaches 1000 °C, offering a potentially inexhaustible energy source.
Wind Energy
With a global distribution of wind turbines, we assume a capacity factor of approximately 60%. Using 12 MW wind turbines, the required number of turbines is:
30 TW / (12 MW × 0.6) ≈ 4 million turbines.
At a cost of 10 million USD per turbine, the total cost amounts to 40 trillion USD.
A major problem is that, due to the power utilization rate of only 60%, much more energy needs to be stored than is practically feasible.
TODO: Include calculations for storage costs.
With storage costs estimated at an additional 200 trillion USD, the total comes to approximately to 250 trillion USD.
Solar Energy
Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
We consider Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) systems in desert regions. CSP offers the advantage of cost-effective energy storage using molten salt.
With a capacity factor of 30%, the required CSP capacity is:
30 TW / 0.3 = 100 TW.
CSP systems achieve an efficiency of 35%, which translates to approximately 400 W/m² at peak solar radiation of 1200 W/m².
The total area required is:
100 TW / (400 × 106) = 250,000 km². This is equivalent to a square of 500 km × 500 km.
If we can get the cost of CSP down to $3 per Watt, the cost will be about 300 trillion USD.
For optimal results, CSP systems should be distributed globally to minimize climate disruptions. This approach also increases the capacity factor and reduces the required energy storage capacity.
Nuclear Energy
Nuclear power requires significantly higher investments compared to renewables. For instance, with the largest reactors, such as the European Pressurized Reactor of 1600 MW, achieving 30 TW would require 20,000 reactors. At a construction cost of 10 billion USD per reactor, the total cost amounts to 200 trillion USD. Additionally, there are astronomical costs associated with nuclear disasters and waste storage. Nuclear Energy is anyway not a long-term solution, as uranium reserves are insufficient.
A far better alternative to traditional uranium nuclear power plants are thorium reactors. Unfortunately, in the past, investments were almost exclusively directed toward uranium reactors, as they also provided materials for nuclear weapons production.
Other Small-Scale Energy Sources
The following energy sources are too small to have a meaningful impact:
- Tidal energy
- Wave energy
- Hydroelectric energy
Understanding the affordability of 300 trillion USD
The costs amount to 30 trillion USD per year if spread over 10 years. This amount is in the same order of magnitude as the largest annual expenditures worldwide:
| Healthcare Spending | 10 |
| Cybercrime Costs | 10 |
| IT Spending | 30 |